stacking-ridge2f.Rmd
y <- AirPassengers
y_train_test <- misc::splitts(y)
y_train <- y_train_test$training
y_test <- y_train_test$test
h_test <- length(y_test)
fcast_ets <- forecast::forecast(forecast::ets(y_train), h=h_test)$mean
## Registered S3 method overwritten by 'quantmod':
## method from
## as.zoo.data.frame zoo
fcast_arima <- forecast::forecast(forecast::auto.arima(y_train), h=h_test)$mean
fcast_theta <- forecast::thetaf(y=y_train, h=h_test)$mean
par(mfrow=c(1, 2))
plot(ahead::ridge2f(y_test, lags=10L,
xreg = cbind(fcast_ets,
fcast_arima,
fcast_theta),
h=40L,
B=250L,
type_pi="blockbootstrap"
))
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z_test <- cbind(y_test,
fcast_ets,
fcast_arima,
fcast_theta)
colnames(z_test) <- c("true", "ets", "arima", "theta")
fcast_z_test <- ahead::ridge2f(z_test,
lags=7L,
h=40L,
B=250L,
type_pi="blockbootstrap")
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plot(fcast_z_test, "true")